Thank you for this important analysis, Kerry, which mirrors the experience of Germany. This is what happens when wealthy subsidy-seekers drive California electricity policy via aggressive lobbying. Here's one example of a well-heeled elite who admitted circa 2014 he is on the gravy train at taxpayer expense. (Buffett's father was a four-term U.S. Representative from Nebraska.) Multi-billionaire Warren Buffett explained the rationale for solar and wind generation in 2014:
"For example, on wind energy, we get a tax credit if we build a lot of wind farms. That's the only reason to build them. They don't make sense without the tax credit."
"Big Wind's Bogus Subsidies - Giving tax credits to the wind energy industry is a waste of time and money." By Nancy Pfotenhauer, Contributor | May 12, 2014, at 2:30 p.m US News & World Report
Apparently, Buffett collects so many taxpayer-funded subsidies from his solar and wind generation that he can shelter the income of his substantial fossil-fired generation fleet. Via his PacifiCorp subsidiary, Buffett owns about 6,000 MW of coal-fired generation in and around Wyoming and about 3,000 MW of natural gas fired generation. He makes huge amounts selling his fossil-fired power to California at night. Your above May 7, 2025 LMP chart shows night time NP15 prices of about $40.00 / MWh. In your May 7, 2025 example, Californians are paying about $2+ million per night for their power imports. In the high demand months, the night time electricity cost can double - or go even higher based on tight supply conditions.
Buffett also lobbies California aggressively. He was the number 3 lobbyist in California in 2024. Independent nonprofit Californians for Green Nuclear Power (CGNP) believes the main purpose of that lobbying was to protect his business selling coal-fired power at wholesale to California, hidden behind the California-specific legal euphemism, "Unspecified Power." Warren has sold about a billion dollars at wholesale of that mostly coal-fired power to California since November, 2014. Buffett created a daily electricity spot market [WEIM] with the likely goal of evading the SB 1368 (Perata, 2006) performance standard for imports (which bars coal-fired generation.)
Since 2017, CGNP has been a persistent critic before local, state, and federal bodies of Buffett's business practices. We believe in response to Buffett's aggressive lobbying directed to the CPUC, independent intervenor CGNP was completely denied an intervenor compensation award of over $153,000 in a Decision announced on December 8, 2023. (Economic retaliation.) This decision was completely contrary to statute and precedent. The apparent goal was to bankrupt a persistent Buffett critic. To learn more regarding the details, please read the collection of articles at the GreenNUKE Substack. https://greennuke.substack.com/
That last plot documents that most solar EXPORTS are NEGATIVE prices, California is paying to import AND to export power. If you plot the first and last plots together it will be obvious.
Yes. This absurd situation is a consequence of a combination of special-interest lobbying and scientific and engineering ignorance by California decision-makers. California ratepayers pay the exorbitant costs.
I would love to pay California’s “average” price of some .27 kWh. Here in San Diego County, my bill is typically .43 kWh or higher. State mandates require a certain level of “renewable “ energy, so money for maintenance and brush clearing is diverted. Governor Newsom reversed himself on shutting down Diablo Canyon (nuclear), or electricity prices would be much higher.
It’s all thanks to the brilliant Gavin Newsom, arguably the most incompetent governor in California history. We have the highest gasoline prices, which are about to go much higher. Our public schools have plummeted in national rankings, and both businesses and tax-generating residents are fleeing in droves. Most insurance companies won’t write policies. Refiners are leaving the state. Gas stoves are banned going forward. Most cars must be electric, or else. Not to worry, though. We are still a leader in poverty, crime and homelessness. My little town, which produces essentially no emissions, spends a fortune on a state mandated “ climate action plan “. Future academics will study this era in California as a cautionary tale.
The root cause of your high San Diego County electricity rates was the needless shutdown of San Onofre Nuclear Generation Station (SONGS) at the end of January, 2012 by majority owner Southern California Edison (SCE.) A routine SONGS service operation was mismanaged by SCE. SONGS should have been repaired. "Pro-nuclear green group: Bring back San Onofre," Rob Nikolewski, July 21, 2016, The San Diego Union-Tribune
Californians for Green Nuclear Power continues to believe that there was significant criminal misconduct associated with the needless 2012 SONGS shutdown. My wife and I visited some friends in Encinitas this past weekend. As we passed the darkened SONGS site, I commented about the huge economic waste.
The installed cost of 4-hour storage is approximately 7 times the installed cost of solar generation.
California is funding research on 8-hour storage though costs are currently unknown. Longer duration storage is not currently commercially available, but would be necessary to avoid imports.
California has a goal, but no plan. " A failure to plan is a plan to fail.", Benjamin Franklin
California is discovering that altruism fails when it costs.
Added grid-scale storage for California would not be the solution. CGNP estimates California would need to spend twice the states's *entire* budget for the storage for a mere 24 hours. There would be a perpetual cycle of replacement because the batteries last only 10-15 years. (Think about the recent grid scale battery storage fire at Moss Landing, California. The batteries that burst into flames were aged.) If they were available, the massive amount of batteries would require Communist China to be in the supply chain.
Instead, this California lobbying-driven nonsense must stop now. California needs to heed the lessons in the massive April 28, 2025 blackout in Spain and Portugal that killed at least five. Power grids based on solar and wind will fail because they lack the required synchronous grid inertia to maintain stability. See CGNP's March 4, 2024 prescient article, "Why is Grid Inertia Important? Without sufficient synchronous grid inertia, the grid becomes unstable and a blackout occurs." https://greennuke.substack.com/p/why-is-grid-inertia-important
California has the analogue of the National Academy of Sciences named the California Council on Science and Technology (CCST) which is chartered to provide nonpartisan scientific and engineering advice to the California legislature. The eminent scientists and engineers of the CCST were tasked by the California Energy Commission to develop a plan in 2011 to cost-effectively decarbonize the California electricity grid. The answer was to emulate France and build about 30 new Diablo Canyon Power Plants. Here's Nobel Laureate Burton Richter, Ph.D.'s 3 1/2 page summary. "CCST Report on Nuclear Power in California’s 2050 Energy Mix," Burton Richter, Ph.D. July 15, 2011,
And we won’t be Impolite by mentioning that the State’s battery farms keep catching on fire and polluting neighboring farms and communities. Whoops. Oh well, it’s all for the “greater good”, right?
Thank you for this important analysis, Kerry, which mirrors the experience of Germany. This is what happens when wealthy subsidy-seekers drive California electricity policy via aggressive lobbying. Here's one example of a well-heeled elite who admitted circa 2014 he is on the gravy train at taxpayer expense. (Buffett's father was a four-term U.S. Representative from Nebraska.) Multi-billionaire Warren Buffett explained the rationale for solar and wind generation in 2014:
"For example, on wind energy, we get a tax credit if we build a lot of wind farms. That's the only reason to build them. They don't make sense without the tax credit."
"Big Wind's Bogus Subsidies - Giving tax credits to the wind energy industry is a waste of time and money." By Nancy Pfotenhauer, Contributor | May 12, 2014, at 2:30 p.m US News & World Report
https://tinyurl.com/Buffett-Wind-Scam
Apparently, Buffett collects so many taxpayer-funded subsidies from his solar and wind generation that he can shelter the income of his substantial fossil-fired generation fleet. Via his PacifiCorp subsidiary, Buffett owns about 6,000 MW of coal-fired generation in and around Wyoming and about 3,000 MW of natural gas fired generation. He makes huge amounts selling his fossil-fired power to California at night. Your above May 7, 2025 LMP chart shows night time NP15 prices of about $40.00 / MWh. In your May 7, 2025 example, Californians are paying about $2+ million per night for their power imports. In the high demand months, the night time electricity cost can double - or go even higher based on tight supply conditions.
Buffett also lobbies California aggressively. He was the number 3 lobbyist in California in 2024. Independent nonprofit Californians for Green Nuclear Power (CGNP) believes the main purpose of that lobbying was to protect his business selling coal-fired power at wholesale to California, hidden behind the California-specific legal euphemism, "Unspecified Power." Warren has sold about a billion dollars at wholesale of that mostly coal-fired power to California since November, 2014. Buffett created a daily electricity spot market [WEIM] with the likely goal of evading the SB 1368 (Perata, 2006) performance standard for imports (which bars coal-fired generation.)
Since 2017, CGNP has been a persistent critic before local, state, and federal bodies of Buffett's business practices. We believe in response to Buffett's aggressive lobbying directed to the CPUC, independent intervenor CGNP was completely denied an intervenor compensation award of over $153,000 in a Decision announced on December 8, 2023. (Economic retaliation.) This decision was completely contrary to statute and precedent. The apparent goal was to bankrupt a persistent Buffett critic. To learn more regarding the details, please read the collection of articles at the GreenNUKE Substack. https://greennuke.substack.com/
Thank you Gene, that adds much background to what I was showing!
That last plot documents that most solar EXPORTS are NEGATIVE prices, California is paying to import AND to export power. If you plot the first and last plots together it will be obvious.
Yes. This absurd situation is a consequence of a combination of special-interest lobbying and scientific and engineering ignorance by California decision-makers. California ratepayers pay the exorbitant costs.
Concise and informative article, thank you.
It’s literally economic insanity and the state just keeps driving for more. Stop the madness!
I would love to pay California’s “average” price of some .27 kWh. Here in San Diego County, my bill is typically .43 kWh or higher. State mandates require a certain level of “renewable “ energy, so money for maintenance and brush clearing is diverted. Governor Newsom reversed himself on shutting down Diablo Canyon (nuclear), or electricity prices would be much higher.
It’s all thanks to the brilliant Gavin Newsom, arguably the most incompetent governor in California history. We have the highest gasoline prices, which are about to go much higher. Our public schools have plummeted in national rankings, and both businesses and tax-generating residents are fleeing in droves. Most insurance companies won’t write policies. Refiners are leaving the state. Gas stoves are banned going forward. Most cars must be electric, or else. Not to worry, though. We are still a leader in poverty, crime and homelessness. My little town, which produces essentially no emissions, spends a fortune on a state mandated “ climate action plan “. Future academics will study this era in California as a cautionary tale.
The root cause of your high San Diego County electricity rates was the needless shutdown of San Onofre Nuclear Generation Station (SONGS) at the end of January, 2012 by majority owner Southern California Edison (SCE.) A routine SONGS service operation was mismanaged by SCE. SONGS should have been repaired. "Pro-nuclear green group: Bring back San Onofre," Rob Nikolewski, July 21, 2016, The San Diego Union-Tribune
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/2016/07/21/pro-nuclear-green-group-bring-back-san-onofre/
Californians for Green Nuclear Power continues to believe that there was significant criminal misconduct associated with the needless 2012 SONGS shutdown. My wife and I visited some friends in Encinitas this past weekend. As we passed the darkened SONGS site, I commented about the huge economic waste.
The installed cost of 4-hour storage is approximately 7 times the installed cost of solar generation.
California is funding research on 8-hour storage though costs are currently unknown. Longer duration storage is not currently commercially available, but would be necessary to avoid imports.
California has a goal, but no plan. " A failure to plan is a plan to fail.", Benjamin Franklin
California is discovering that altruism fails when it costs.
Agreed, not enough gold remaining in those hills of California to pay for the storage that they need!
Added grid-scale storage for California would not be the solution. CGNP estimates California would need to spend twice the states's *entire* budget for the storage for a mere 24 hours. There would be a perpetual cycle of replacement because the batteries last only 10-15 years. (Think about the recent grid scale battery storage fire at Moss Landing, California. The batteries that burst into flames were aged.) If they were available, the massive amount of batteries would require Communist China to be in the supply chain.
Instead, this California lobbying-driven nonsense must stop now. California needs to heed the lessons in the massive April 28, 2025 blackout in Spain and Portugal that killed at least five. Power grids based on solar and wind will fail because they lack the required synchronous grid inertia to maintain stability. See CGNP's March 4, 2024 prescient article, "Why is Grid Inertia Important? Without sufficient synchronous grid inertia, the grid becomes unstable and a blackout occurs." https://greennuke.substack.com/p/why-is-grid-inertia-important
California has the analogue of the National Academy of Sciences named the California Council on Science and Technology (CCST) which is chartered to provide nonpartisan scientific and engineering advice to the California legislature. The eminent scientists and engineers of the CCST were tasked by the California Energy Commission to develop a plan in 2011 to cost-effectively decarbonize the California electricity grid. The answer was to emulate France and build about 30 new Diablo Canyon Power Plants. Here's Nobel Laureate Burton Richter, Ph.D.'s 3 1/2 page summary. "CCST Report on Nuclear Power in California’s 2050 Energy Mix," Burton Richter, Ph.D. July 15, 2011,
https://ccst.us/wp-content/uploads/071511richter.pdf
And we won’t be Impolite by mentioning that the State’s battery farms keep catching on fire and polluting neighboring farms and communities. Whoops. Oh well, it’s all for the “greater good”, right?
Picky, picky, picky. ;-)